Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III
Gary Myers If history holds true, either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III will be a bust in the NFL
There is no drama at the top of the draft in 12 days. The Colts have been in love with Stanford’s Andrew Luck for two years as the successor to Peyton Manning. They just had no idea they would be in position to draft him. He will go first.
The Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to move up four spots to get Baylor’s dynamic Robert Griffin III. He will go second.
Luck and Griffin will be just the seventh set of quarterbacks to go 1-2 since the NFL started the draft in 1936. It will be just the fifth time it’s happened since the 1970 merger and it hasn’t happened at all since 1999. Luck and Griffin are expected to be franchise quarterbacks and resurrect their teams.
If the history of quarterbacks going 1-2 is a way to predict the future, then Luck or Griffin will become a star — but not both. Here’s the rundown since the merger:
1971: The only time quarterbacks went 1-2-3 with Jim Plunkett (Patriots), Archie Manning (Saints) and Dan Pastorini (Oilers). Plunkett was a disappointment with a bad Patriots team, but won two Super Bowls with the Raiders. Peyton’s and Eli’s dad may be the best quarterback in NFL history never to make the playoffs. Pastorini was a flashy player but never won anything.
1993: In Bill Parcells’ first draft for the Patriots, he picked Drew Bledsoe over Rick Mirer and Bledsoe took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1996, but he is better known for his injury in 2001 that opened the way for Tom Brady in New England. Even so, Bledsoe was elected last year to the Patriots’ Hall of Fame. Mirer, who played at Notre Dame and was supposed to be the next Joe Montana , was a bust in Seattle. In a strange twist, Parcells acquired Mirer for the Jets in the preseason in 1999, but he was just 2-4 starting after Vinny Testaverde suffered a torn Achilles in the first game. Mirer wound up playing for seven teams in his 12-year career.
1998: Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf . There was actually doubt which quarterback the Colts would select right up until the day before the draft. San Diego general manager Bobby Beathard , who was picking third, traded two No. 1s, a No. 2 and running back Eric Metcalf to the Cardinals to move up just one spot to guarantee getting Manning or Leaf. He made that trade in the middle of March, more than a month before the draft. He said he would be happy to get either one. “It doesn’t make any difference to us,” Beathard said. “The Colts are the only ones that have to make a decision. Not us. We get whoever’s left.” Oops. Manning became one of the all-time greats. Leaf is the No. 1 flop in NFL draft history.
1999: The expansion Browns selected Tim Couch after the NFL awarded them the overall No. 1 pick. The Eagles took Donovan McNabb at No. 2. Couch made the playoffs once in Cleveland, but injuries ruined his career. He was gone from Cleveland after his fifth season. McNabb took Philly to five NFC title games and one Super Bowl in 11 seasons and was one of the most underappreciated athletes in the history of that tough sports town.
The Colts will take Luck. The Redskins will take Griffin. They both look like can’t-miss quarterbacks, but if history repeats, only one of them will be a star.
This article was written by Greg Myers and appeared in New York Daily News.
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